Bosnian liberation offensive gathers strength
Socialist Outlook1990sScanned print read by OCR, and not yet proofread: expect run-together words, dropped letters and, where a piece began partway down a page, a few lines of its neighbour. The printed page is the authority.
TWO and a half years after the Serbian Blitzkrieg which occupied 70% of Bosnia and ravaged it with ethnic cleansing the Bosnian army have launched several successful counterattacks.
Over the past two weeks poorly armed but highly motivated liberation forces have retaken hundreds of square kilometres of territory.
They liberated 30 villages to the north of Sarajevo and the town of Bosanska Krupa in the North West. They also retook territory around the North Western enclave of Bihac and mounted a joint offensive Bosnian Croat forces to take the strategic town of Kupres in central Bosnia - their biggest military success of the war.
Following decisions of the Bosnian Serb leadership in Pale to declare a general mobilisation and give Radovan Karadzic unlimited powers to wage war some of this territory has been retaken by Bosnian Serb forces, who despite the rift with Milosovic, remain by far the best armed and supplied.
At the same time the Bosnian mor Army in Bihac has come under heavy artillery and air attack from the Serbs of the breakaway Krijena region of Croatia.
The arms embargo remains the biggest single problem for the Bosnians. While this remains in force, the gains they make are in danger of being Alan Thornett (centre left) in Split with earlier aid convoy rolled back by their heavily armed opponents.
Nor are the Bosnian Serbs hampered by the so-called blockade which the Milosovic regime in Belgrade - imposed as an attempt to get crippling sanctions lifted.
They have been supplying the Bosnian Serbs by the back door and are now under renewed pressure from the Bosnian offensive to do so openly.
Ultimately they will not allow the Bosnian Serbs defeated for lack of arms and supplies.
The unilateral decision of the Clinton administration to pull out of policing the arms embargo is a political victory for the Bosnian government. It may have the effect of increasing the trickle of light arms which curthis scheme although Renamo rently get through-although the blockade will continue to be fully enforced.
The US decision represents a remarkable disintegration of Western policy in ex-Yugoslavia, which has been contradictory and shaky at the best of times.
Having lost the vote in the UN Security Council for the lifting of the embargo the US has now taken a step which amounts to a decision to defy a mandatory resolution of the UN itself -which requires the enforcement of the embargo.
In practical terms, however, it will not mean so much - initially at least. US ships will continue to be a part of the embargo enforcement patrols and will stop and search ships just the same. racist minority regime in RhoIf they find arms bound for the Bosnian government they will not themselves impound then but hand them over to other forces which will then do so.
There is more behind the US decision than the gains of the right in the recent elections. The US administration has been in favour of the lifting of the embargo for more than a year.
Like other Western divisions over Bosnia it reflects the different global interests of the govemments involved.
Britain's traditional links are with Serbia, Germany's with Croatia. US strategic interests centre on protecting their oil supplies, and the Arab regimes of the Gulf. Their main base in the region is Turkey. They cannot afford to be seen to be aiding the final defeat of a majority Muslim government.
This collapse of policy brings the so-called peace process, which is in fact a process of the partition of Bosnia, to a virtual standstill. The Bosnian Serbs are not going to negotiate out of weakness and they are not in any case going to settle for the 49% of Bosnian they have been offered.
All the signs point to all-out war as winter is about to arrive. This winter could well be by far the worst of the war.
The need for international solidarity with the right of the Bosnian people to determine their own future and against ethnic cleansing and for a multi-ethnic Bosnia will be greater than ever.